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January 28, 2012 - The Other Kind of Market Momentum - By Zacks Investment Research
By: Steve Reitmeister
At the end of every year, major publications like the Wall Street Journal produce a list of stocks with the biggest gains. What do these stocks have in common? Almost without fail these companies experienced a surge in earnings that greatly surpassed expectations - and the stock subsequently soared. Another term for this surge is positive earnings momentum.
On the flip side, stocks that fell the most during the year experienced negative earnings momentum. To sum it up:
. Good earnings beget more good earnings beget higher share prices
. Bad earnings beget more bad earnings beget lower share prices
As investors, our goal is to line our portfolios with as many stocks experiencing positive earnings momentum as possible. That's because this one element is the key catalyst behind share price momentum.
How do we find more of these stocks? First we must understand the dynamics of earnings momentum.
These aspects have a self-reinforcing quality that will keep the company headed in the right direction for an extended period of time. The result being a string of earnings reports well above expectations and a booming stock price.
However, the company experiencing negative earnings momentum will behave in the opposite way; a poor management team, inferior products and services, disgruntled employees and dissatisfied customers fleeing to the competition. As you know, this is very bad for corporate profits and thus the stock price.
I like to think of a company as a large freight train stretching as far as the eye can see. When things are going well, the train just keeps rolling down the track. There is a positive rattle and hum to that train that everyone enjoys.
Now imagine the conductor notices that the train is going in the wrong direction. The train is headed south when it needs to go north. Now ask yourself how much time and energy does it take to stop that train? Even worse, how long will it take to back the train up to a spot where it can turn around?
The same is true for a large company that's headed in the wrong direction. Do you think it can be turned around in one quarter? Or two?
History shows that not to be the case. Yet too many of us are content to hold onto stocks that have earnings disappointments only to see share prices continue to plummet. I cannot say this emphatically enough...
SELL ALL COMPANIES WITH NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES . . . IMMEDIATELY!!!
How to Find Companies with Positive Earnings Momentum?
It's actually quite easy. Len Zacks scientifically proved over 30 years ago that companies receiving increased earnings estimates from brokerage research analysts will more likely beat earnings expectations in the future. The essence of his finding was placed into our Zacks Rank stock picking model.
You've probably heard us pound our chest about the +26% annual return for the #1 Ranked - Strong Buy stocks. We couldn't say it if it wasn't true.
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My recommendation is to try one of our subscription services where a Zacks expert hand selects the stocks for you. Better yet, they tell you exactly when to get in and when to get out so you can maximize profits.
The best way to select the service that's right for you is to try them all. That's why we created Zacks Ultimate. With it, you gain access to every one of our stock-picking services. Starting now, you're invited to try Zacks Ultimate for 30 days at special terms and be supported by the boldest guarantee we ever made.
Wishing you great financial success,
Steve
Steve Reitmeister has been with Zacks since 1999 and currently serves as the Executive Vice President in charge of Zacks.com and all of its leading products for individual investors, including Zacks Ultimate.
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Wary Investors Have Unwittingly Created a Market-Beating Opportunity
Warren Buffett's advice, "Be greedy when others are fearful" has never been more on the mark than during today's hyper-volatile market. General investor wariness is causing a handful of terrific companies to suddenly emerge as "value stocks."
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Growth Stocks to Boom in Bear Markets
You'd think it would be easy to make a fortune with growth stocks. Just pick the fastest-growing companies and rake in the profit. The problem is that the stock prices of these companies shoot up before most investors can get aboard. What if somebody tipped you off to these growth spurts before Wall Street catches on? What if you could know about these companies before they even begin their moves?
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Zacks Investment Research Premium Tip #3 - About Zacks Recommendations & Investing for the Long Haul
There are approximately 4400 stocks covered by the Zacks Rank. But the Zacks Rank is only a short term rating system with a 1 to 3 month time horizon.
Our goal was to develop a model that would produce superior long term ratings on the same group of 4400 stocks. This has been fully realized through the creation of Zacks Recommendations which have proven to be an excellent predictor of stock price movement over a 6+ month time frame.
Our firm has long believed that quantitative models, like the Zacks Rank, can predict stock prices more accurately than individual analysts. However we also recognize that models are most effective when they are employed by analysts who have deep fundamental knowledge of the company and its industry. Zacks Recommendations provide that best of both worlds approach given our usage of both a quantitative model and team of 50 equity analysts.
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