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October 25, 2016 - US Dollar Forecast Outlook
The Dollar Rally Is Meeting Resistance By The Street
Trading the News Profitably
The buck may be stopping here, at least for a while.
The price action in the US Dollar Index so far this year has been a perfect reproduction of the price action in 2015, and if it continues the buck may be ready for a pullback.
The weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index shows it making a high near the 100.00 level in early 2015 and then pulling back and making a low in May near the 93.00 level. That low proved to be support for the next six months as the index consolidated in a wide horizontal channel and then rallied back up to its previous high in October that year.
It failed to breakout to a new high and consolidated for the next two months near resistance, but was unable to mount a second serious challenge. The subsequent pullback that followed early this year took it back to the long-term support line, and initiated what looks like a second round of price action identical to the first.
Another six-month period of range consolidation followed this year's pullback and, just like in 2015, the index began to rally in October. That rally is still short of achieving the 100.00 area, but there are signs on another chart that suggest that it may currently be at a key resistance level.
The weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ( UUP) plots the price action in the dollar over the last two years a little differently than the index. It shows it as a large triangle pattern with a downtrend line drawn off the February and October 2015 highs, which is currently intersecting with the fund high made last week.
There are a number of positive technical indications on this chart that reflect upside momentum supported by money flow, and it is likely that at some point in the short to intermediate term there will be a pattern breakout and the dollar and the fund will be moving significantly higher. The indications on the daily chart, however, suggest that a pullback and period of consolidation will be required before a breakout.
On the daily time frame, the fund price can be seen constructing an interior wedge of symmetrical triangle pattern over the last five months within the parameters of the weekly triangle. It broke above wedge resistance two weeks ago and has continued up to to test the weekly triangle downtrend line, in the process taking the relative strength index into an overbought condition and diverting from its 50-day moving average by the highest level since its October 2015 high.
Chaikin money flow has been moving lower this month reflecting waning positive price momentum.
The dollar and the UUP will move higher as interest rates eventually rise, but there is no exact time frame on that dynamic and, in the meantime, traders should monitor the price action around key resistance levels outlined on these weekly and daily charts.
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