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April 23, 2014 - EUR/CHF Showed a 13% Overvaluation in March
EUR/USD remained in a narrow range around 1.38 level, as Europe returned from the Easter holidays and faced uncertainty over whether ECB policy will move toward more monetary stimulus.
Asian shares: Japan's Nikkei 1.09%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.81% (07:15 GMT), Korea's Kospi -0.19%, Australia's ASX 200 0.64% and China's Shanghai -0.26%. .
ECB executive board member Coeure said on Tuesday that there was further margin to reduce the main interest rate below 0.25 percent and that the strength of the euro could be keeping inflation too low.
Expectations are building that the European Central Bank may consider quantitative easing (QE) to stimulate the economy, but research house Capital Economics says it might not be the panacea that investors are hoping for. "Of course, the mere announcement of any form of QE could have the desired impact across the board, as it would mark a break from the past and signal the willingness to do more," said Capital Economics' chief economist Julian Jessop. "But the options are now being so widely discussed that it is difficult to believe that some action is not already priced in." Jessop added that it was hard to see an outcome that pleases all investors - including those anticipating a sharp decline in the euro as well as further large gains for both bonds and equities. "We do not expect it to be a game-changer for the economy, and what happens on the other side of the Atlantic may ultimately prove much more important for the markets,"
Capital Economics expects further ECB easing to contribute to a slight weakening of the euro to $1.30 by year-end and additional outperformance by both European equities and bonds relative to their U.S. counterparts.
The Swiss National Bank monthly bulletin’s gauge of fair value for EUR/CHF showed a 13% overvaluation in March compared to 12% a month earlier. The 1.20 cap has been in place since Sept 2011.
French manufacturing and services growth cooled more than economists forecast this month as new business stagnated and employment fell. A PMI of factory activity dropped to 50.9 from 52.1 the previous month.
U.S. existing home sales slipped by 0.2 percent in March compared to February, but annual unit sales, while the lowest since July 2012, beat forecasts data showed on Tuesday.
A Chinese manufacturing gauge signaled a fourth month of contraction, indicating that government efforts to counter an economic slowdown have had only a limited impact. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was 48.3 in April, matching the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg . While that was higher than the final March figure of 48.
The New Zealand dollar investors are waiting for the upcoming RBNZ interest rate decision. The central bank is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.0% at Thursday’s meeting. NZDUSD managed to break an important triangle resistance at 0.8580 to trade as high as 0.8620. A Wall Street Journal poll of 14 economists points to more than 90% chance of a rate hike from 2.75% to 3.0%.
Ukraine military plane hit by gunfire from rebel town.
Trading the News Today: Eurozone PMIs, US PMI and new home sales.
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