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January 17, 2017 - Stockmarkets Politics and Elliottwave
What Can Stock Markets Tell You About Politics? By Elliottwave International
There is a surprising correlation between stocks and political trends
Below, you'll find an excerpt from a new special study our monthly European Financial Forecast published on December 1, 2016.
While the mainstream analysts weigh macro-economic and sociological factors to make forecasts for the busy European election season next year, the model below shows you an entirely different approach.
The European Financial Forecast December 2016 issue (data through Dec. 1)
EUROPEAN ELECTIONS SPECIAL (and you thought the U.S. election was contentious)
"The main social influence of a bear market is to cause society to polarize in countless ways. Separatism becomes a force as territories polarize. Populism becomes a force as classes polarize. Third parties, fourth parties, and more, find constituents."-- Conquer the Crash, 2002
The poisonous U.S. election battle is over, but Europe's "unprecedented 2017 voting season" (Bloomberg, 11/9/16) is just now kicking off. Let's get up to speed.
Italy (December 4, 2016)
The vote: The first of Europe's critical votes happens this weekend in Italy. Italians will vote on the "most ambitious government overhaul in decades." (Bloomberg, 7/31/16)
The market's verdict: The Italian MIB index (right) sports major declines on both a near-term and long-term basis, so social mood favors a defeat for the referendum. (Editor's note: The vote got a "no.")
Netherlands (March 2017)
The vote: Geert Wilders, the leader of the anti-EU, anti-immigration Freedom Party, remains well ahead in the polls.
The market's verdict: It's hard to say how this one will go, as the Dutch AEX index (left) sports a massive near-term rally within an even more massive long-term decline. In other words, social mood shows a mix of bull- and bear-market forces and so does the Dutch parliament.
France (April and May 2017)
The vote: The main event for European politics will undoubtedly be the French general election. Far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen may very well become France's next president.
The market's verdict: The CAC 40 (right) reversed from a 15-year resistance line. Socionomically, a win for Le Pen, though not guaranteed, is about to become far more likely. [Her] platform is tailor-made to capitalize on a negative mood trend and, love it or hate it, the National Front's position near the top of the polls speaks volumes about the bear market's progress to date.
Germany (Elections: October 2017)
The vote: German stocks remain near all-time highs. So, for now, the social mood trend favors the incumbent, Angela Merkel.
The market's verdict: Support for Germany's far-right, anti-immigrant AFD party has spiked since the DAX's peak (left). A lot can happen in a year, and if the DAX [goes] lower, Merkel should lose the chancellorship by a wide margin.
Yes, you can learn a surprising amount about a country's future political trends by studying the bullish or bearish trends in its stock market -- a concept called socionomics.
Brian Whitmer, EWI's own European Financial Forecast editor, has been coupling socionomics and Elliott wave counts together since 2004, to keep his subscribers ahead of key trends in the European financial markets.
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