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Economic Calendar March 11, 2010 - Refresh Your Browser for Latest Update

8:30 AM ET. Jan Trade Balance, in dollars

8:30 AM ET. Mar 6 Jobless Claims

10:00 AM ET. Feb 27 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer

10:30 AM ET. Mar 5 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

4:30 PM ET. Mar 1 Money Supply

4:30 PM ET. Mar 10 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars

4:30 PM ET. Mar 10 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars

Daily Stock Market Outlook Forecast March 11, 2010

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The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 1946.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1837.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1918.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 1946.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1870.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1837.18. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 1.50 pts. at 1914.75 as of 5:48 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning

The March S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1189.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1112.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1147.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1189.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1127.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1112.53. The March S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 pts. at 1143.60 as of 5:51 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lo wer opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


Interest Rates

June T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last week's high, the January-February uptrend line crossing near 115-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-30. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 118-02. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 115-27. Second support is the January-February uptrend line crossing near 115-03.

Energy

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May crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.64. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 83.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.36. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 83.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.86.

May heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 213.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 206.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 214.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 213.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 209.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 206.16.

May unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 252.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 231.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 252.92. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 224.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.98.

May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.931 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.690. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.931. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.512. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

Currencies


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The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during March. If June renews this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 81.97. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92.

The June Euro was slightly higher due to short covering overnight while extending the late-winter trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 138.340 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 132.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 137.340. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.340. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 134.330. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 132.070.

The June British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-rally crossing at 1.4574 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5291 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.5186. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5291. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 1.4772. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-rally crossing at 1.4574.

The June Swiss Franc was higher due to short covering overnight while extending this winter's trading range around the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at .9302. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .9426 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at .9125 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .9397. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9426. First support is the reaction low crossing at .9185. Second support the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at .9125.

The June Canadian Dollar was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 97.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.81. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.09.

The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the January-February uptrend line crossing near .10946 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .11169 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11115. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11169. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .11016. Second support is the January-February uptrend line crossing near .10946.

Precious Metals

How To Forecast Gold and Silver

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April gold was lower overnight as it extended Wednesday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1116.60 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1088.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 1128.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1124.60. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1145.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1103.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1088.50.

May silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.534 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 18.293 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 17.665. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 18.293. First support is the overnight low crossing at 16.835. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.534.

May copper was lower due to profit taking overnight and trading below the 10-day moving average crossing at 338.19. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 331.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 355.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 348.70. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 355.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 333.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 331.41.

Food & Fiber

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May coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 13.08. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews this winter's decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 12.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

May cocoa closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it as consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 27.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.61 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 20.46. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing at 18.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.85. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this winter's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 88.28 is the next upside target. In today's global economy markets drive and influence each other.

Grains & Soybean Complex

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May corn was fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off this month's high. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this decline, February's low crossing at 3.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.88. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.62 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at 3.59.

May wheat was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline below February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 4.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.78. Second support October's low crossing at 4.72.

May Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/2-cents at 4.91. May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday and below February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, October's low crossing at 4.88 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.90. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.88 1/2.

May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's breakout below the lower boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 5.08 3/4. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.15 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.04. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.

May soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.56 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May renews the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.28 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9.64 1/4. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 9.71 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 9.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 9.28 3/4.

May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five days. The mid-range close overnight set the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last week's high, the 87% retracement level of 2009's-decline crossing at 244.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 262.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 255.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2009's-decline crossing at 244.60.

May soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 41.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.63 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 41.02. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 41.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 39.63.

Livestock

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April hogs closed up $0.15 at $72.55. April hogs closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.82. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.99 would confirm that a double top with January's high has been posted. If April extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 74.15. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 74.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 72.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.99.

May bellies closed up $0.20 at $93.00. May bellies closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 100.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 96.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 100.22. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 91.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.72.

April cattle closed down $0.52 at 93.88. April cattle closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high crossing at 95.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 94.60. Second resistance is the May 2009 high crossing at 95.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.58.

May feeder cattle closed down $1.18 at $105.43. May Feeder cattle closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this winter's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 108.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 107.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 108.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.29.

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