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Stock Market Outlook Forecast
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Economic Calendar May 17, 2010
8:30 AM ET. May NY Fed Empire State Survey
9:00 AM ET. Mar Treasury Intl Capital Flows, in dollars
1:00 PM ET. May NAHB Housing Index
Daily Stock Market Outlook Forecast May 17, 2010
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Volatility is likely to pickup this week following action seen last week. France's Sarkozy reported threats to pull France from euro zone, may keep the markets at bay. Increased concerns over the extent of the Gulf oil disaster may move front and center. Scientists are calling previous estimates of the amount of oil flowing from the leaking Deepwater Horizon rig into the Gulf, unrealistically low. With the rate closer to 70,000 barrels a day, making the resulting spill already far worse than the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident in Alaska, it's likely the government will add pressure to BP to increase their efforts to cap the leak, or else.
The June NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1977.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1883.00 would open the door for a larger-degree setback this week. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1927.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1977.42. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1883.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1730.25. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 3.00 pts. at 1912.75 as of 5:54 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends last Friday's decline, fib support crossing at 1104.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1172.98 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1147.33. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1172.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1120.60. Second support is fib support crossing at 1104.95. The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.00 pts. at 1137.30 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Interest Rates
June T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the March 2009 high crossing at 126-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119-15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 122-26. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 124-16. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 119-26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119-15.
Energy
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June crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 69.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.26. First support is the overnight low crossing at 69.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 68.50.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the February-May rally crossing at 198.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.86. First support is the overnight low crossing at 202.40. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 198.01.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 208.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 226.57 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 218.58. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 226.57. First support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May rally crossing at 208.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 202.37.
June Henry natural gas was higher overnight and is poised to extend last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.421 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.153 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.414. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing 4.421. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.153. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.
Currencies
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The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.95. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.41.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 121.695 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.818 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126.577. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.818. First support is the overnight low crossing at 122.350. Second support is monthly support crossing at 121.695.
The June British Pound was lower overnight and has renewed this year' decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the overnight decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2009-rally crossing at 1.4168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5068 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4808. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5168. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.4250. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2009-rally crossing at 1.4168.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at .8624 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9128 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8974. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9128. First support is the overnight low crossing at .8742. Second support is weekly support crossing at .8624.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, fib support crossing at 94.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.22 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.99. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.22. First support is the overnight low crossing at 95.79. Second support is fib support crossing at 94.74.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. If June extends last week's rally, this month's high crossing at .11375 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last Thursday's low crossing at .10681 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .11207. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at .11375. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .10681. Second support is this month's low crossing at .10532.
Precious Metals
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June gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1185.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1210.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1185.30.
July silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.481 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, the 2008 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 21.440 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 19.845. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 21.440. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.669. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.481.
June copper was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 294.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.67 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 325.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.67 First support is this month's low crossing at 300.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 294.32.
Food & Fiber
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July coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 13.87 are needed to renew the rally off April's low. If July renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.02 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 27.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's short covering rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at 12.14 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.25 would open the door for a larger-degree decline this spring. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Grains & Soybean Complex
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July corn was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. A rising US Dollar continues to pressure the corn market. The mid-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's decline, April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.56 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2.
July wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's decline, April's low crossing at 4.60 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.96 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.96. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.17. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.67 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 4.60 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 4.91. July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 4.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.11 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.11 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.90. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.73.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.09 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.46. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.10 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.09 1/2.
July soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 9.32 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.81 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.63 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.81 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 9.40 3/4. Second support is the /7% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing near 9.32 1/2.
July soybean meal was lower overnight and the mid-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July renews the overnight decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 273.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 280.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.30. First support is the overnight low crossing at 274.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 273.80.
July soybean oil was lower due a stronger US Dollar overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 37.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.78 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 38.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 38.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 37.08. Second support is February's low crossing at 36.70.
Livestock
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June hogs closed down $1.05 at $83.55. June hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past six weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement level of the August-April rally crossing at 81.53 is the next downside target. If June renews this year's rally, the August 2008 high crossing at 88.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.55. Second resistance is the August 2008 high crossing at 88.97. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 83.35. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the August-April rally crossing at 81.53.
July bellies closed down $0.10 at $101.40. July bellies closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews last week's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 105.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 103.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 105.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.97. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.10.
June cattle closed down $2.33 at 95.57. June cattle closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.26 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 91.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.80. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 97.20. First support is today's low crossing at 95.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 91.50.
August feeder cattle closed down $2.10 at $112.98. August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Friday and below trading range support crossing at 114.10. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 112.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 117.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.72. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.20. First support is today's low crossing at 112.90. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 112.58.
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