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July 28, 2014 - Jobless Claims are Lowest Since 2006: Commence Awkward Teen Years by Market Authority
The economy is picking up steam. That’s the conclusion drawn from Thursday’s unexpected decline in jobless claims of 284k. This weekly indicator of workers searching for employment dropped to its lowest reading since 2006.
One data point doesn’t make a trend, but the 4-week average is showing a significant decline:
After the number of workers looking for jobs spiked during the Great Recession of 2008, the trend has been significantly lower. Furthermore, a 4-week jobless claims average below 300k in new claims is consistent with an accelerating economy that, dare I say, may be adding 300k jobs per month.
The economy was very close to adding 300k jobs in July with a 288K print. The revised number of 304k jobs in May even topped it:
The underlying strength in the economy can be witnessed in Ford’s recent earnings report, where they handily beat expectations (accounting for one-time charges related to restructuring and losses in foreign business units). Here’s the 1 year chart of Ford (F):
The other pillar of the economy, housing, is still in the doldrums. While the monthly pace of new home sales is 75% higher than the lows of 2011, sales are nowhere close to the 2005 highs:
Due to the pickup in the labor market, it would appear that the market is nearing an inflection point. The last 2 years of gains arrived at the hands of an overly accommodating Fed, which promised QE infinity until the economy reached escape velocity. Lately, Yellen has dismissed higher than expected inflation readings as mere “noise”. Her actions strengthened investors’ belief that the Fed is reluctant to take away the punch bowl until everyone is visibly intoxicated (how fun!).
As growth accelerates, the Fed will eventually become aware that rates are too accommodative. When this occurs (and it’s a “when”, not “if”), the markets will indeed go through an adjustment phase. Adjustments, while they may result in a favorable outcome, are usually volatile. That’s because there will be a high degree of uncertainty as to whether the Fed will be able to take off QE programs fast enough. (Think of your awkward pre-teen years and how you’ve probably burned those yearbooks and removed those photos from scrapbooks).
On August 1st, the BLS will report non farm payrolls for the month of July. I would surmise that a July non-farm payroll of 300k will send the bond market sharply lower and change the narrative from a friendly Fed to one that needs to concern themselves with the inflationary impact of slack tightening in the labor markets. And this will commence the awkwardness of the pre-teen years.
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