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March 07, 2014 - The Chart that Shows Inflation is On the Rise by Market Authority
As promised yesterday, there’s a chart making the rounds of Wall Street inboxes that may be the canary in the coal mine for inflation, as it illustrates the relationship between the Unemployment rate and the growth in wages.
The importance of this chart cannot be understated. Bernanke, and now Janet Yellen, have both articulated to markets that Quantitative Easing programs would end when the Unemployment rate falls below 6.5% and inflation reaches 2.5%.
Below is what the masters of the universe are currently looking at.
The blue line represents the Unemployment rate, which has been falling since its 2009 peak. Skeptics have long contended that the unemployment rate has been declining due to the amount of workers that have given up looking for work. For the most part, this view has been correct as wage growth (the red line) hasn’t risen. This view was challenged in 2013 when wage growth began accelerating higher.
So why is this important?
A rise in wages signals a true declining supply of available workers. Wage growth means the lack of supply is causing employers to pay higher prices for new employees.
This is essentially a way for the record levels of corporate cash to find its way back into the economy and back into prices.
So here’s a quick summary of QE:
1. The Fed added $4trln in reserves to bank balance sheets.
2. With record low rates, corporations were able to borrow from the banks and fill their balance sheets with cash.
3. That corporate cash is now being shifted into the economy in higher waves for workers.
4. Higher wages means more money to spend and leads to higher prices.
Thus, this cyclical process will eventually lead to inflation and higher interest rates.
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